Macron Wins Again: What That Means For The Future Of French Politics

Pink Magnolias are a must-see sight in Paris in the spring, and they were in full bloom as Emmanuel Macron was re-elected for the first time in two decades.

IPSOS, a leading polling organisation, declared minutes after voting finished on April 24 that Macron had defeated his opponent, Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Rally party, by a margin of 58 percent to 42 percent of the popular vote.

While the figures are preliminary, the bottom fact is that Macron will continue to lead France for another five years. Macron won a convincing victory against Le Pen in a two-round electoral process:

These results were similar to those of 2017, when both candidates suddenly rose to the top of the polls, significantly altering French politics.

The most important point is that a slew of new parties have largely replaced the classic conservative, communist, and socialist parties. Macron is a moderate, and his En Marche! party is only six years old.

The second major change is Marine Le Pen’s far-right party’s steady rise, despite the fact that she and her views have once again fallen short of victory. Le Pen has been on a steady march, and her perseverance has paid off.

The second major change is Marine Le Pen’s far-right party’s steady rise, despite the fact that she and her views have once again fallen short of victory. Le Pen has been on a steady march, and her perseverance has paid off.

Her party’s vote percentage has steadily increased from 18% in 2012 to 34% in 2017, and then to 41% in 2022.

When comparing the current results to those from 2017, we can see that both candidates increased their first-round standings (the French presidential election system is conducted in two rounds; a first, in which all candidates of major parties participate, and a second, in which the top two candidates by vote share have a run off, in case no one manages a majority in the first round).

Macron’s vote percentage in the second round, meanwhile, fell by over 8%. The inference is that Marine Le Pen is no longer on the margins, but is already firmly entrenched in a bipolar mainstream.

She issued an unnecessary churlish concession speech less than an hour after the first forecasts were out, indicating that the loss bothered her.

Le Pen stopped short of appealing the results, telling her followers that they had won despite the reality that they had lost. She also used a rural-urban split to make her case, saying that the villages supported her while the cities did not.

In one sense, she may be correct, but it does not speak well for French politics, as Macron may expect more of Le Pen’s doughty, combative, and abrasive politicking, particularly in the run-up to the French parliamentary elections in June 2022.

Because Le Pen was quite loud in her campaign about the senselessness of alienating and antagonising the Kremlin by compromising on Europe’s energy security and defence as the West has, Macron will have to be careful about how far he toes the American line on Russia.

From a political standpoint, it appears that the political spectrum has narrowed significantly, with the traditional left receiving the short end of the stick from voters.

The French Socialist Party, which had been a full half of a stable, bi-polar political system for decades and supplied several prime ministers and presidents, has been eliminated, as have the Conservatives.

Both have been replaced by a plethora of alternatives, the most of which, regardless of ideology or gender, boil down to Kejriwals with class or Thackerays with baritones.

By default, this huge shift in voting trends will make Macron and Le Pen stand out in a rather diverse crowd. The only thing that isn’t certain right now is whether Le Pen will continue as party leader or hand over the reins to someone else. That’s difficult and unlikely, given that her party, the National Rally, is a family affair; Le Pen is a dynasty who inherited a strong party organisation from her father.

Nonetheless, the socialists and conservatives have a chance to reclaim power in the legislative elections in June. acron’s party currently holds a majority of 308 out of 577 seats, while Le Pen’s National Rally has yet to reach double figures.

In any case, it appears that extreme Islamism has lost most of its political support, as many of the parties that favoured it in France are no longer in power.

Last but not least, what does Macron’s re-election portend for India? It’s too early to predict whether the results will result in more Rafale fighters for the Indian Air Force or more French involvement in the engines for India’s proposed fifth-generation fighter plane.

However, it will be a fantastic opportunity for Narendra Modi and Emmanuel Macron to resolutely improve a healthy relationship, even as the United States, led by Joe Biden, wants to create a radical rupture between Russia and the West.