Ukraine War: US Intelligence Says Fighting To Slow Down During The Winter Months

US intelligence agencies predict that the combat in Ukraine will continue to wane through the upcoming winter.

However, according to US head of intelligence Avril Haines, there hasn’t been any indication of Ukrainian forces’ resistance weakening.

Both sides, according to her, would endeavour to “refit, replenish, and reconstitute” for any springtime counteroffensive.

The crucial energy infrastructure of Ukraine had already been attacked by Russia.

Even though Russia has lost more than half of the territory it had seized, the war in Ukraine is now in its ninth month.

The majority of the fighting is currently taking place near the eastern Ukrainian cities of Bakhmut and Donetsk, Ms. Haines stated at a defence forum in California.

Following Russia’s departure of soldiers from the west of the Kherson region last month, she said that combat had subsided.

The panel’s moderator, Andrea Mitchell of NBC News, said, “We’re witnessing a kind of decreased tempo of the war now… and we believe that’s likely to be what we see in the coming months.”

She claimed that after the winter, both the militaries of Russia and Ukraine would be looking to get ready for any counteroffensive.

But we actually do have some doubts about whether the Russians will actually be willing to do that, she added.

“I have a more positive outlook for the Ukrainians during that time.”

According to Ms. Haines, US intelligence believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin is now unaware of the full extent of his military’s difficulties.

“We observe ammo shortages, morale problems, supply problems, logistics, and a host of other issues that they are dealing with.”

Although they questioned if the frigid temperatures may support “a quicker pace of operations as winter sets in,” analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) presented a different image in a daily evaluation.

Serhiy Haidai, the regional governor of Ukraine in Luhansk, made remarks that the weather in the eastern Donbas region was changing as winter conditions arrived, which were cited by the institute.

The ISW had previously claimed that operations in the Donbas would not slow down because wintertime is “the best time of year for mechanised manoeuvre warfare.”

On the other hand, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Saturday that a price ceiling imposed on Russian oil exports by his Western partners was “weak” and that it was not “severe” enough to harm the Russian economy.

The cap, which is set to take effect on Monday, aims to prevent nations from paying more than $60 (£48) a barrel for Russian crude oil that is transported by sea.

Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for the Kremlin, stated that although Moscow had planned for the action, it would not sell its oil under the cap.

A group of the top oil-producing nations in the world is anticipated to adhere to its oil output targets at a virtual meeting on Sunday.

The Opec+ group, which consists of nations such as Russia and the United Arab Emirates, decided to restrict output by two million barrels per day beginning in November in an effort to support higher oil prices during their most recent ministerial meeting in October.

The United States and other Western countries were offended by the action, and Washington accused the organisation of siding with Russia.

Because of slower global growth and higher interest rates, oil prices have fallen since October. According to Opec sources, the group will probably consent to a policy rollover.

The government of Kyiv is reportedly imposing sanctions against 10 senior members of the Orthodox Church who it claims were complicit in Russia’s invasion, according to the security service of Ukraine.

The Ukrainian government’s most recent action against religious organisations deemed potentially subversive is the imposition of sanctions that will freeze their assets for five years.